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Boeing Forecasts Global Demand for 42,595 New Commercial Aircraft by 2042

Boeing unveiled its Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for 2023, projecting a global demand for 42,595 new commercial aircraft by 2042, valued at $8 trillion. This comes as international traffic and domestic air travel make a resurgence, returning to pre-pandemic levels.

The new CMO reflects a recovery in the aviation industry, three years after the majority of the global fleet was grounded due to the pandemic.

Key findings from the outlook include:

  1. Passenger traffic continues to outpace global economic growth at 2.6%.

  2. The global fleet is expected to nearly double to 48,600 jets, growing at a rate of 3.5% per year.

  3. Airlines are replacing approximately half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.

  4. The Asia-Pacific markets represent over 40% of global demand, with China accounting for half of that total.

  5. South Asia's fleet is projected to expand at over 7% annually, the fastest growth rate globally, with India driving over 90% of passenger traffic in the region.

  6. North America and Europe each represent around 20% of global demand.

  7. Low-cost carriers are expected to operate over 40% of the single-aisle fleet by 2042, compared to 10% two decades ago.

  8. Russia and Central Asia are included in this year's forecast, accounting for approximately 3% of the global fleet in 2042.

Boeing's Commercial Services also predicts a total market value of $3.8 trillion, including digital solutions, spare parts and supply chain solutions, maintenance and modification options, and effective training to enhance safety.

Over the next 20 years, Boeing anticipates strong demand for various aircraft models, including:

  1. New single-aisle aircraft representing over 75% of all new deliveries, totaling over 32,000 aircraft.

  2. New wide-body jets accounting for nearly 20% of deliveries, with over 7,400 aircraft enabling airlines to open new markets and serve existing routes more efficiently.

  3. Air cargo is expected to outpace global trade growth, leading to a demand for 2,800 dedicated freighters. This includes over 900 new wide-body models, as well as converted wide-body and narrow-body models.

Boeing's CMO, published annually since 1961, is considered the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. This outlook reflects a positive trajectory for the industry, driven by recovering air travel demand and the need for more efficient and sustainable aircraft.

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